The prediction that I've been making when asked about New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is that it won't be that long before he loses his base. His hallmark issue is affordability, and his proposals to fight cost creep in NYC are unlikely to show cost benefits in the short term (or, in my opinion, in the longer term either). To look at his most bandied about policy proposals -- rent-stabilized housing construction, raising the minimum wage to $30/hour, city-run grocery stores, and universal childcare -- is to look at a wish list that adds up to around $17bn in new yearly expenses for the city. Mr. Mamdani says that this has an easy salve in the form of increased taxes, but there is a major issue standing in his way by the name of Kathy Hochul, who has called the idea of raising taxes a nonstarter. To me, it seems obvious that more taxes aren't the way to build a more affordable city, given that NYC already has the highest tax rate in the country, and yet still has among the highest cost-of-living. Could it be that NYC needs ever more tax revenue to fix the city? Unlikely.

    For a time, the battle with Trump will be the storm providing wind for Mamdani's sails, and New Yorkers will, I predict, support their man (including me!). But eventually the battle will stall or stalemate, and people will see that these programs aren't passable, and even if they were, wouldn't achieve the goals proposed. To fix housing costs, we need a lot more than 200k rent-stabilized homes, we need deregulation and private sector home building expansion (paging Dr. Abundance!). Housing supply is far far behind demand, let's begin to address this more wholeheartedly than just stabilized units. Decreasing grocery costs is all but impossible using only one city's influence, rather, it's better to just expand SNAP or FreshConnect or other similar programs to provide assistance for those in need. When these programs aren't showing results the base will start to question the leader -- exactly what we're seeing now with Trump. If and when Mamdani (like AOC) begins to adapt more moderate positions, as he has shown willingness to do, he will slowly lose the support of his base here in the city who expect him to be a socialist renegade fighter for the little man. My prediction, to summarize, is that after some time propped up by the battles with Trump and Hochul, he will slowly lose the base who want him to be more radical, and likely lose his reelection bid.