Dan Schueftan is an Israeli national security expert, he's served as a consultant to many administrations and is a somewhat important figure there. He says about modernization theory -- that is that there is an inevitable progression through economic liberalization and other methods to the end state of western liberal democracy -- that it works only if you imagine that in every Saddam Hussein there's a little Thomas Jefferson trying to get out. This joke has an important implicit understanding which is that there are few if any Jeffersonian ideals in the Ba'athist worldview. More and more I feel a joke like this falls on deaf ears, which is to say ears that won't be able to grok that Jihadists honestly do think that the Quran has all the answers for a happy life or that Russian Elites do genuinely support Putin and thence believe the war to be just and righteous. Though our values are rooted in equality, of citizenry, of rule of law and impartial judiciaries, and so on, since we've lost track of our own stories, we have lost the ability to compare and contrast our stories with their stories.
When asked what the standout takeaway is from reading the Soviet Communist party archives, hitherto unread by any Western audience, Stephen Kotkin -- preeminent Russian history scholar and author of a projected three volume Stalin biography [1] (first two already released, third forthcoming) -- replies 'They were really communists!' One can easily fall into thinking that in the smoke filled backrooms where decisions were being made there was a sense of the propaganda of it all, that there was daylight between public and private positions, but alas there was not! There is, in fact, overwhelming contrary evidence, for example the furthest anti collectivization -- that episode in Soviet History where millions were starved to death and many more millions starved to the edge of death -- position you would find was likely Bukharin, who still believed it to be a historical necessity, just that it needed to be a more gradual process. The communists believed that they were transcending (Aufheben) capitalism, a Hegelian term, and this was but one rung on that ladder. True believers exist in all systems, including ones that find distasteful or unbelievable.
So the Ba'athists are Ba'athists and the communists are communists, you say, so what? So what is that we are still in conflict with the CCP, albeit a separate strain, like Linux is to Unix operating systems, different in name, but alarmingly similar in the substance. When Merkel makes deals with Putin over natural gas pipelines, she imagines that he would never go to war with Europe now, of course, imagine what it would do to his economy! She seems to forget that Putin isn't a democratically elected leader who cares about maintaining support by building the Russian economy, but a dictator who cares only about holding onto the levers of power. As Kotkin says, he isn't a private equity mogul -- so he loses a few points on his GDP, big deal. We have to change our lens of analysis based on the system of government. In a dictatorship, all you must do it suppress political alternatives. Let's remember that different systems produce different incentives. Take them at their word. In Russia's case they see themselves as a providential power, a unique power under God. Russia has a special mission in the world, the borderlands of Europe and Asia. They aren't just another European nation, they are Russia, a civilization unto itself.
We need to be able to read the stories of other cultures and civilizations, comparing them with our own, and finding middle ground. In a recent article published in Foreign Affairs Kotkin has suggested five potential futures of Russia [2]. The most compelling of these, to me, is Russia as France. France is a unique culture with a politically tumultuous history, a revolutionary history. France is on it's fifth republic, after all. France also has a rich history of military aggression, many say that the Napoleonic wars should be called the first world war. Russia as France shows that there are ways to assimilate what is special about Russian culture and society into a story that doesn't necessitate the invasion of her neighbors, as has happened with the French society. The only problem, and the barrier holding back Russia from blossoming into a rule of law democracy (I jest), is that it took the utter destruction of France for this change to take hold.
Lastly, these cultures are beautiful and special in their own ways. Where would literature be without Dostoevsky or Tolstoy, where would music be without Tchaikovsky or Rachmaninoff and Stravinsky. Novels like Ali and Nino, often considered the national novel of Azerbaijan, is a touching love story wherein Ali Khan Shirvanshir, a Muslim Azerbaijani elite, falls in love with Nino Kipiani a Christian Georgian [3]. The cultural clash in Azerbaijan between Iranian Islamic influence on one side, and European Christian Georgia and Armenia on the other is the major theme of the book, understanding that Ali, as a Mohammadan, has certain 'Asiatic' opinions, that are constantly in conflict with Nino's opinions, coming from her European family and experience. These two young lovers attempting to navigate between these two worlds, end up in the same place they started, Azerbaijan, realizing that that is the only place for them, the intersection of the worlds. They cannot live in Iran or Paris, for one of them would become a fish out of water and drown, culturally speaking. This book, narrated by Ali Khan Shirvanshir, can only be understood by believing Ali's opinions, but seeing the venerable traits like loyalty to family, to clan, and forgiving views about women or non believers. Most of us aren't Ali, we live deeply in one side of these cultural rifts. We must do others the respect of believing their professed beliefs, but we also must not be afraid to defend our values and culture.
An aphorism attributed to the Taliban was "You Americans have your clocks; we have time." Although in the fullness of time, they were proven correct, let's show them that we have our time, as well. We will keep progressing as a society with more equality of opportunity for all in our society, by improving our social mobility, by continuing to improve our living standards, and so on. Let's celebrate our successes of social justice such as women's voting, civil rights, desegregation, and gay marriage. We need to study our dark history to spot bad paths in the future. This period of (mostly) world peace post WWII wasn't a mistake, it was policy and power projection by America that made it possible. Let's celebrate that success with the understanding that despite that period seeming to end, we can and should still be a force for "good" in this complicated world.
[1] Kotkin, Stephen. Stalin: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928. Penguin Press, 2014; Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941. Penguin Press, 2017.
[2] Kotkin, S. (2024). Five futures for Russia. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/five-futures-russia-stephen-kotkin
[3] Said, K. (2000). Ali and Nino. Anchor Books. (Original work published 1937)